Advanced models and simulations
To study the complex interactions between healthcare interventions and outcomes, PHE employs existing and custom-built models to generate credible evidence to inform decision-making.
One of PHE’s primary modeling tools is The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS), a proprietary microsimulation that tracks individuals 25 and older over their remaining lives to project future population-level health and economic outcomes. The simulation is built upon real-world patient data. Specific modules are built upon the base model in order to understand the long-term implications of interventions that treat particular diseases or policy interventions that influence pharmaceutical innovation. THEMIS was originally developed with funding from CMS, NIH, and others, from a model known as the Future Elderly Model.
PHE uses a wide range of evidence sources, including real-world retrospective databases, to build models. In some cases, multiple data sources are combined to improve model validity.
THEMIS TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION
- The full technical specifications for the model with the HRS as the host dataset can be found here: THEMIS HRS and THEMIS Excel Supplement.
- The original technical specification produced by USC for the Future Elderly Model can be found here: USC FEM.
- The full technical specifications for the model with the PSID as the host dataset can be found here: THEMIS PSID.
- The original technical specification produced by USC for the Future Adult Model can be found here: USC FAM.
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SELECTED PHE EXPERTS