Advanced models and simulations
SELECTED PHE EXPERTS
To study the complex interactions between healthcare interventions and outcomes, PHE employs existing and custom-built models to generate credible evidence to inform decision-making.
One of PHE’s primary modeling tools is The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS), a proprietary microsimulation that tracks individuals 25 and older over their remaining lives to project future population-level health and economic outcomes. The simulation is built upon real-world patient data. Specific modules are built upon the base model in order to understand the long-term implications of interventions that treat particular diseases or policy interventions that influence pharmaceutical innovation. THEMIS was originally developed with funding from CMS, NIH, and others, from a model known as the Future Elderly Model.
PHE uses a wide range of evidence sources, including real-world retrospective databases, to build models. In some cases, multiple data sources are combined to improve model validity.
- Goldman DP, et al. Early HIV treatment in the United States prevented nearly 13,500 infections per year during 1996-2009. Health Aff (Millwood). 2014.
- Romley JA, et al. Early HIV treatment led to life expectancy gains valued at $80 billion for people infected in 1996-2009. Health Aff (Millwood). 2014.
- Sail K, et al. Lifetime costs of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Blood. 2017.
- Van Nuys K, et al. Broad hepatitis C treatment scenarios return substantial health gains, but capacity is a concern. Health Aff (Millwood). 2015.
- Dzau VJ. Aligning incentives to fulfill the promise of personalised medicine. Lancet. 2015.
- Snider J, et al. The economic value of CTL019 therapy for pediatric patients with relapsed and refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the United Kingdom. Blood. 2017.
- Lakdawalla D, et al. Measuring the value of better diabetes management. Am J Manag Care. 2013.
- Van Nuys K, et al. A long-term comparison of clinical and economic outcomes with novel oral anti-coagulants. Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes. 2017.
- Sullivan J, et al. The social value of immunotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer. Value Health. 2016.
SELECTED PHE EXPERTS