Forecasting outcomes, costs and trade-offs
When a healthcare innovation affects the trajectory of a disease over time, PHE uses innovative analysis and modeling to understand the health and economic impacts of these changing disease dynamics. These analyses may consider important complexities such as:
- The downstream implications and value of early treatment of HIV infection in reducing transmission of HIV to others
- The potential population-level benefits of precision medicine policies that encourage disease prevention
- The costs of chronic lymphocytic leukemia according to disease and remission status
- The long-term impact to society of policies that encourage broad treatment of HCV, lowering costs associated with advanced disease, and reducing transmission of the disease to others in the population
One of PHE’s primary disease modeling tools is The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS), a proprietary microsimulation that tracks individuals 25 and older over their remaining lives to project health and economic outcomes based upon real-world longitudinal data. PHE has also employed custom-built models when appropriate to study the impacts of nuanced disease dynamics on outcomes.
PHE’s studies on disease outcomes and costs typically use modeling approaches, such as PHE’s proprietary microsimulation, THEMIS. Learn more about these models below.
- Goldman DP, et al. Early HIV treatment in the United States prevented nearly 13,500 infections per year during 1996-2009. Health Aff (Millwood). 2014.
- Romley JA, et al. Early HIV treatment led to life expectancy gains valued at $80 billion for people infected in 1996-2009. Health Aff (Millwood). 2014.
- Sail K, et al. Lifetime costs of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Blood. 2017.
- Van Nuys K, et al. Broad hepatitis C treatment scenarios return substantial health gains, but capacity is a concern. Health Aff (Millwood). 2015.
- Dzau VJ. Aligning incentives to fulfill the promise of personalised medicine. Lancet. 2015.
- Snider J, et al. The economic value of CTL019 therapy for pediatric patients with relapsed and refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the United Kingdom. Blood. 2017.
- Lakdawalla D, et al. Measuring the value of better diabetes management. Am J Manag Care. 2013.
- Sullivan J, et al. The social value of immunotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer. Value Health. 2016.
- Shrestha A, et al. Real-world resource use and costs of haemophilia A-related bleeding. Haemophilia. 2017.
- Vanderpuye-Orgle J, et al. Evaluating the economic burden of psoriasis in the United States. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2015.
- Stevens W, et al. Estimating the future burden of cardiovascular disease and the value of lipid and blood pressure control therapies in China. BMC Health Serv Res. 2016.
SELECTED PHE EXPERTS