Modeling the potential societal value of precision medicine
“PHE received a request from the World Economic Forum (WEF) to study the potential value of personalized and precision medicine to society.”
Precision medicine involves the identification of subgroups of patients, through biomarkers or other means, in order to identify the most effective interventions for an individual patient, which can include treatment and prevention strategies. PHE received a request from the World Economic Forum (WEF) to study the potential value of personalized and precision medicine to society. The objective of this research was to inform the prioritization of this initiative by global policymakers.
PHE used its proprietary microsimulation, The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS), to quantify the long-term economic impact of policies that incentivize and employ precision medicine strategies for identifying and treating high-risk patient populations.
The analysis examined 6 important chronic diseases (cancer, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke). PHE considered treatment scenarios that resulted in a 10% incidence reduction of each disease and scenarios that resulted in a 50% incidence reduction of each disease. PHE modeled these scenarios using THEMIS, calculating the long-term benefits and costs over 50 years. PHE found the net value to society ranged from $33 billion to $607 billion depending on the effectiveness of the intervention, the severity of the disease, and the prevalence of the disease.
PHE collaborated with the President of the National Academy of Medicine, Victor Dzau, in conducting and disseminating the study, and the article was published in a top medical journal, The Lancet. The study distilled several messages for policymakers and insurers. First, prevention can generate enormous social value, but incentives to develop preventive interventions are limited. Second, the value of a preventive intervention is tied to its effectiveness and the prevalence of the targeted disease. Third, the long-term value of preventive interventions suggests the need for reimbursement models that incentivize insurers who have shorter time horizons in order to maximize the societal returns of medical interventions.
PHE collaborated with the President of the National Academy of Medicine and published the study in a top medical journal, unital The Lancet.